Within the next few years, our planet will exceed the 1.5°C safe warming threshold set out in the Paris Agreement. Therefore, our priority now is to limit this “overshoot” as much as possible and reverse it over time. Greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere are the primary drivers of the climate change we are experiencing. Yet while attention has largely focused on carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas with the greatest overall impact, methane—another highly potent greenhouse gas—was, for some reason, largely overlooked until recent years.
Methane is, in fact, the second-largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide. Moreover, although it remains in the atmosphere for a relatively short period of around 12 years, it has 86 times the heat-trapping capacity of carbon dioxide. Methane is also responsible for nearly one-third of the warming observed today and is one of the key drivers of climate change. These realities are leading to greater attention being paid to methane in climate policy.
Given the limited time we have to curb warming, just as reducing carbon dioxide will help create long-term climate stability, reducing methane can serve as a critical lever for slowing the rate of temperature increase in the short term. Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD), an international non-profit environmental and climate policy organization, captures the issue clearly with the analogy: “It’s really the only strategy that has a chance of working. Cutting CO2 is a marathon; cutting methane is a sprint.”
Transforming the Waste Management System While Reducing Methane
Today, approximately 20% of human-caused methane emissions come from the waste sector. Methane is released particularly when food waste, garden waste, sewage and other biodegradable materials decompose in oxygen-free environments. Furthermore, with the amount of waste generated globally expected to increase by 50% by 2050, the problem is certain to grow substantially unless action is taken now. The solutions, however, are already within reach. Today, the vast majority of the methane reduction potential in the waste sector can be achieved through low-cost measures. Proven technical measures indicate that methane emissions from the waste sector could be reduced by approximately 13 million tonnes annually by 2030. For example, methods such as the separate collection of organic waste at source, reducing food loss and waste, composting, capturing methane at sanitary landfills and closing uncontrolled dumpsites are highly effective solutions. All these approaches also demonstrate that the challenge today is no longer simply about reducing emissions. It is about eliminating methane while simultaneously transforming the waste management system.
Agriculture and Fossil Fuels Are the Largest Sources of Methane
Waste is, of course, not the only source of methane generated by human activity. Agriculture is the largest source, accounting for approximately 40%. Within the agricultural sector, livestock farming above all, along with manure management, dairy production and rice cultivation, generates the greatest amounts of methane.
Fossil fuels, meanwhile, are responsible for approximately 34%. Leaks occurring during the production, processing and transportation of oil, gas and coal collectively result in substantial quantities of methane entering the atmosphere. Even abandoned and currently inactive oil wells and coal mines can continue to contribute to methane emissions. According to the International Energy Agency’s 2026 Global Methane Tracker, methane emissions from fossil fuels amounted to approximately 124 million tonnes in 2025.
Around 8% of methane emissions are generated through the burning of biomass and biofuels. In addition to the household burning of products such as wood and coal, methane is also released into the atmosphere through the burning of forests, savannas, peatlands and agricultural waste.
Methane Must Urgently Be Included in National Commitments
Global initiatives to tackle methane have accelerated in recent years. For example, the Global Methane Pledge was signed at COP26 in 2021. The World Bank launched the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership (GFMR) to reduce methane emissions and gas flaring in developing countries. COP29, held in Azerbaijan, marked another important milestone. The Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste, issued at the summit, called on governments to include sector-specific targets for methane emissions from organic waste in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Türkiye was among the 32 countries that signed the declaration.
As efforts to reduce methane emissions continue to gain momentum, this greenhouse gas will also come under particular scrutiny at COP31 in Antalya, especially within the framework of the Zero Waste Action Plan. In fact, methane has been identified as one of the main themes under Zero Waste Day in the summit’s official action agenda. On the one hand, the summit will seek to encourage countries to incorporate opportunities for reducing waste-related methane emissions into their updated NDCs. On the other, it will aim to move the methane debate beyond the issue of leaks from fossil fuel operations, emphasizing through a zero-waste approach that the waste sector is also a highly significant source of methane. In doing so, COP31 will seek to promote methane reduction efforts across all sectors.
Naturally, the Turkish COP31 Presidency will also have important responsibilities in this context. While other countries are being urged to “include waste methane in their NDCs,” Türkiye will also have an opportunity to make the methane targets in its own NDC more visible and measurable. Indeed, methane reduction is explicitly addressed in Türkiye’s waste strategy. The Climate Change Presidency’s document on Waste Sector Strategies under the 2053 Net Zero Emissions Target makes a very direct assessment, stating that the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions from the sector comes from uncontrolled methane emissions originating from sanitary and uncontrolled landfill sites. In this context, Türkiye aims to increase the recovery rate of municipal waste to 60% by 2035.
Facilitating Traceability and Accountability
Focusing solely on carbon dioxide in NDCs can make the actual impact of climate targets appear more positive than it really is, given methane’s powerful short-term warming effect. For this reason, experts argue that NDC updates and new NDCs should cover all greenhouse gases and, in particular, set separate quantitative reduction targets for methane. Indeed, the Global Methane Pledge’s own guidance has already recommended that countries incorporate methane reduction into their NDCs and quantify the mitigation potential of measures in the waste sector.
Including methane reduction in NDCs is also important for strengthening the measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification of emissions from this potent greenhouse gas. NDCs can also act as a driving force for the adoption of methane reduction policies that have already been tested and proven effective. Defining separate methane reduction measures for each sector can provide companies and consumers with greater visibility into future requirements, enabling them to plan accordingly. Of course, simply stating in a country’s NDC that “methane emissions will be reduced” or “methane emissions from waste will be reduced” is not enough. NDCs should also explain, for example, which methods will be used to reduce methane and according to what timetable. The most important issue, however, is scale. A country’s commitment to reducing waste-related methane emissions by a clearly defined amount by a specified year can make both monitoring and accountability significantly easier.
Against this backdrop, COP31 in Antalya presents major opportunities. The summit will seek to forge inseperable links between climate policy and waste policy, highlighting how reducing methane emissions from waste can generate simultaneous benefits across numerous areas, from climate policy and waste management to air quality, public health and the circular economy. Beyond this, in order to deliver the “sprint” our planet urgently needs, calls for countries to update their NDCs accordingly are expected to be voiced much more strongly by many countries, with Türkiye among those at the forefront.
23 September 2026
