A new study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) reveals that, despite a distinct stagnation in global coal demand and new mine openings dropping to a 10-year low, planned coal mining capacity worldwide grew by 11% over the past year, reaching 2,521 million tonnes per annum (mtpa).
According to the findings in the report, approximately 92% of the total capacity that is announced, permitted, and under construction is concentrated in just five countries: India, China, Australia, Russia, and South Africa. With 1,321 mtpa of mine capacity under development, China alone surpasses the combined total of all other countries globally in this sector.
India emerged as the dominant driver behind the planned capacity growth. The country's administration has adopted an aggressive production strategy, citing the need to shield itself from geopolitical risks and devastating heatwaves. Consequently, India's planned coal mining capacity doubled from the previous year, surging from 329 mtpa to 658 mtpa. Another critical driver in the planned expansion is the shift in coal utilization. While 15% of planned mine capacity in China is directly tied to coal-to-chemicals projects, the Indian government is directly backing a massive $3.9 billion coal gasification initiative.
Conversely, new coal mine capacity additions continue to slow globally. In 2025, 113 mtpa of capacity came online. This figure represents a 40% decline compared to the 185 mtpa added in 2024, marking the lowest annual addition recorded in the past decade. In Europe, Norway shut down its last active coal mine, successfully completing its domestic coal phase-out following Spain.
While the International Energy Agency projects that global coal demand will plateau toward 2030, it is estimated that 12% of current operating capacity will be retired by 2035. The fact that 70% of projects under development remain in the pre-construction phase creates significant stranded asset risk. As cheap renewable energy sources such as solar and wind outcompete coal, persisting with these projects heightens the danger of locking in carbon-intensive infrastructure for decades to come.
You can access the study here.
August 21, 2026
